Huawei Held Highest Worldwide Share; Ciena Leads Outside of China.

The market for DWDM systems significantly grew year-over-year (Y/Y) in the first half of 2019, in part because the comparative period, 1H 2018, includes much lower sales into China caused by the US ban on ZTE. Hence, taking a look at the optical market, excluding China, gives a much better view of the market’s health this period as well as vendor strength.

We estimate that DWDM systems revenue outside of China grew 5 percent Y/Y in 1H 2019. Not surprisingly, when we account for vendor share without China, Huawei, the worldwide market leader, drops considerably below Ciena’s lead share.

In 1H 2019, Ciena held nearly 30 percent share of the optical DWDM market outside of China due to the company’s dominance in North America and growing share in international markets. Ciena’s revenue grew over 20 percent Y/Y. During this period, Huawei held the second-highest share outside of China even though the company’s market share declined slightly from both full-year 2018 and 1H 2018. Nokia continued to hold the third-highest share outside of China with revenue growth in the period exceeding the market average percentage growth of 5 percent.

The Dell’Oro Group Optical Transport Quarterly Report offers complete, in-depth coverage of the market with tables covering manufacturers’ revenue, average selling prices, unit shipments (by speed including 100 Gbps, 200 Gbps, and 400 Gbps).  The report tracks DWDM long haul terrestrial, WDM metro, multiservice multiplexers (SONET/SDH), optical switch, optical packet platforms, and data center interconnect (metro and long haul).  To purchase this report, please contact us at dgsales@delloro.com.

The overall telecom equipment and services market is projected to grow at a 1% CAGR

We just wrapped up the July 2019 5-year Forecasts for all the Telecommunications Infrastructure and Services programs covered at the Dell’Oro Group.

In this forecast, the overall telecom equipment and services market is projected to grow at a 1% CAGR, approaching $129 B by 2023, up from $121 B in 2018. Helping to drive this growth is fairly synchronized growth projections within the application mix, with mobile and fixed revenue projected to both grow at a 1% CAGR over the forecast period.

Additional key takeaways from the reporting period include:

• In order to cope with mobile data traffic that continues to grow at an unabated pace and flattish revenue trends, operators are balancing their investments carefully between the supply side related challenges and the opportunities from a demand perspective. The need to reduce TCO has been a catalyst for the overall 4G to 5G migration acceleration, benefitting not only RAN equipment but also the demand for core, transport, and services.
• Total Transport Market – including Microwave and Optical – is projected to grow at a 3% CAGR.
• The demand for Mobile Backhaul is projected to grow at a 3% CAGR while the overall RAN market is projected to grow at a 2% CAGR, over the forecast period.
• Overall 5G infrastructure projections – including 5G RAN and 5G Core – were revised upward, reflecting a more optimistic view about the 5G Core market.
• The adoption of 400 GE will help to advance the SP Router market and offset flat growth expectations for Broadband Access.
• Following five years of contractions, Network Equipment Services revenue growth is expected to improve, buoyed by improving market sentiment for telecom equipment. Total Network Equipment Services revenue – including Managed Service, Network Rollout Service, and Consulting Service – is projected to grow at a low-single digit growth rate over the forecast period.

Dell’Oro Group telecommunication infrastructure research programs consist of the following: Broadband Access, Carrier IP Telephony, Microwave Transmission & Mobile Backhaul, Mobile Radio Access Network (RAN), Optical Transport, Service Provider (SP) Router & Carrier Ethernet Switch, Telecom Capex, Wide Area IoT, and Wireless Packet Core.

The latest Dell’Oro Group CBRS RAN 5-year forecast suggest short term delays and renewed concerns about the network economics for outdoor deployment will not impact the long-term demand for LTE and 5G NR CBRS solutions – the overall CBRS RAN market outlook is relatively unchanged since the January 2019 update. The overall CBRS market is expected to grow at a rapid pace between 2019 and 2023 with cumulative RAN investments projected to comprise a tangible share of the overall North America RAN market (Figure 1).

“There is a fine line between pleasing everyone and no one. And even with more questions raised about the outdoor CBRS TCO, our underlying position has not changed–we remain excited about the CBRS opportunity and continue to believe that the majority will benefit resulting in material CBRS investments over the next five years”, said Stefan Pongratz, Senior Research Director for RAN and Telecom Capex with the Dell’Oro Group.

Other highlights from the CBRS 5-Year Forecast Report:

• CBRS capex is not projected to have a significant impact on the WLAN capex.
• CBRS investments are projected to account for a mid-single-digit share of the overall North America RAN market.
• FWA is projected to drive the lion share of the CBRS capex over the near-term.

  About the Report

Dell’Oro Group’s Advanced Research: Citizen Broadband Radio Service (CBRS) Report offers an overview of the CBRS RAN potential with a 5-year forecast for indoor and outdoor LTE and 5G NR CBRS deployments along with a discussion on the participating suppliers. To purchase these reports, please contact us by email at dgsales@delloro.com.

China’s 5G RAN Market to Advance Fivefold

The latest Dell’Oro Group Mobile RAN 5-Year July Forecast Report indicates that the investment recovery in China that began in the second half of 2018 is expected to extend over the forecast period, propelling China’s 5G RAN market to advance nearly fivefold relative to an already-aggressive 2019 baseline.

“While there is still some uncertainty about the 5G NR business case driven by new revenue opportunities, the momentum for 5G NR eMBB is developing at a broader and faster pace than originally anticipated,” said Stefan Pongratz, Senior Director with the Dell’Oro Group. “With data traffic projected to grow 3 to 4 times over the forecast period, no one is asking any more whether there is a business case for using more spectrum and utilizing it more efficiently,” continued Pongratz.

Other highlights from the Mobile RAN 5-Year July Forecast Report:

• China is expected to dominate the 5G capex envelope – cumulative investments projected to be more than twice the size of North America’s 5G RAN investments over the forecast period.
• The shift from conventional antenna systems towards Massive MIMO is accelerating – operators are on track to deploy nearly 400 M transceivers over the forecast period.
• The small cell outlook has been adjusted upward to reflect stronger than expected demand for indoor Sub 6 GHz small cells – total small cell RAN market forecasted to nearly double over the forecast period.

 About the Report

Dell’Oro Group’s Mobile RAN 5-Year Forecast Report offers a complete overview of the RAN industry, with tables covering manufacturers’ revenue, transceivers or RF carrier shipments, and base transceiver stations for 5G NR, 5G NR Sub 6 GHz, 5G NR mmW, LTE, LTE FDD, LTE TDD, WCDMA, GSM, CDMA, and WiMAX. The report also includes regional analysis and splits for macro cells, small cells, and Massive MIMO. For more information about the report, please click here.

 

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