The latest Dell’Oro Group CBRS RAN 5-year forecast suggest short term delays and renewed concerns about the network economics for outdoor deployment will not impact the long-term demand for LTE and 5G NR CBRS solutions – the overall CBRS RAN market outlook is relatively unchanged since the January 2019 update. The overall CBRS market is expected to grow at a rapid pace between 2019 and 2023 with cumulative RAN investments projected to comprise a tangible share of the overall North America RAN market (Figure 1).

“There is a fine line between pleasing everyone and no one. And even with more questions raised about the outdoor CBRS TCO, our underlying position has not changed–we remain excited about the CBRS opportunity and continue to believe that the majority will benefit resulting in material CBRS investments over the next five years”, said Stefan Pongratz, Senior Research Director for RAN and Telecom Capex with the Dell’Oro Group.

Other highlights from the CBRS 5-Year Forecast Report:

• CBRS capex is not projected to have a significant impact on the WLAN capex.
• CBRS investments are projected to account for a mid-single-digit share of the overall North America RAN market.
• FWA is projected to drive the lion share of the CBRS capex over the near-term.

  About the Report

Dell’Oro Group’s Advanced Research: Citizen Broadband Radio Service (CBRS) Report offers an overview of the CBRS RAN potential with a 5-year forecast for indoor and outdoor LTE and 5G NR CBRS deployments along with a discussion on the participating suppliers. To purchase these reports, please contact us by email at dgsales@delloro.com.

China’s 5G RAN Market to Advance Fivefold

The latest Dell’Oro Group Mobile RAN 5-Year July Forecast Report indicates that the investment recovery in China that began in the second half of 2018 is expected to extend over the forecast period, propelling China’s 5G RAN market to advance nearly fivefold relative to an already-aggressive 2019 baseline.

“While there is still some uncertainty about the 5G NR business case driven by new revenue opportunities, the momentum for 5G NR eMBB is developing at a broader and faster pace than originally anticipated,” said Stefan Pongratz, Senior Director with the Dell’Oro Group. “With data traffic projected to grow 3 to 4 times over the forecast period, no one is asking any more whether there is a business case for using more spectrum and utilizing it more efficiently,” continued Pongratz.

Other highlights from the Mobile RAN 5-Year July Forecast Report:

• China is expected to dominate the 5G capex envelope – cumulative investments projected to be more than twice the size of North America’s 5G RAN investments over the forecast period.
• The shift from conventional antenna systems towards Massive MIMO is accelerating – operators are on track to deploy nearly 400 M transceivers over the forecast period.
• The small cell outlook has been adjusted upward to reflect stronger than expected demand for indoor Sub 6 GHz small cells – total small cell RAN market forecasted to nearly double over the forecast period.

 About the Report

Dell’Oro Group’s Mobile RAN 5-Year Forecast Report offers a complete overview of the RAN industry, with tables covering manufacturers’ revenue, transceivers or RF carrier shipments, and base transceiver stations for 5G NR, 5G NR Sub 6 GHz, 5G NR mmW, LTE, LTE FDD, LTE TDD, WCDMA, GSM, CDMA, and WiMAX. The report also includes regional analysis and splits for macro cells, small cells, and Massive MIMO. For more information about the report, please click here.

 

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The latest Dell’Oro Group Telecom Capex 2H18 Report (former name is Carrier Economics report) supports the thesis the firm has communicated with its technology equipment forecasts, namely, there are reasons to be optimistic about the telecom sector. Following three years of declining capex trends between 2015 and 2017, and more stable trends in 2018, the report showed that capex growth will outpace operator revenue growth over the next three years, reflecting operators increased focus on rolling out 5G.

“While the relationship between capex/revenue will likely remain strong over time and constrained operator revenue growth will be one of the primary inhibitors of further telecom capex acceleration, we remain optimistic that there will be some deviation in the short-term to accommodate the rollout of 5G,” said Stefan Pongratz, Senior Director at Dell’Oro Group. “And with the preliminary 5G capex guidance coming in stronger than expected, there is a lot of excitement right now about the potential 5G capex ramp,” continued Pongratz.

Followings are additional highlights from the Telecom Capex 2H18 Report:

• Currency adjusted telecom capex is expected to grow both in 2019 and over the next three years.
• Wireless investments are projected to grow at a faster pace than wireline capex over the forecast period – growing at a low single-digit CAGR.
• 5G revenue growth is not expected to reverse aggregate smartphone ARPU trends over the forecast period.

About the Report

The Dell’Oro Group Telecom Capex Report provides in-depth coverage of the revenue, capex, and capital intensity outlook for about 50 operators. The report provides actual and forecasts details by the carrier, by region by country (United States, Canada, China, India, Japan, and South Korea), and by technology (wireless/wireline).  For more information about the report, please contact dgsales@delloro.com.

According to the Dell’Oro Group CBRS RAN 5-year January Forecast Report, short term delays will not impact the long-term demand for LTE and 5G NR CBRS solutions – the overall CBRS RAN market is expected to grow at a rapid pace between 2019 and 2023 with cumulative investments surpassing $1 B over the next five years.

“We continue to believe the CBRS band with its unique spectrum sharing characteristics include many of the right ingredients to change the status quo about how networks are built,” said Stefan Pongratz, senior director at Dell’Oro Group. “And recent announcement by the CBRS Alliance to support OnGo over 5G underpins projections that 5G NR deployments in the CBRS band are set to accelerate in the outer part of the forecast period,” continued Pongratz.

Followings are additional highlights from the CBRS 5-Year Forecast January Report (2019 to 2023):

• CBRS capex is not projected to have a significant impact on the WLAN capex.
• CBRS investments are projected to account for more than a fifth of the U.S small cell market by the outer part of the forecast period.
• FWA is projected to drive the lion share of the CBRS capex over the near-term.

 About the Report

Dell’Oro Group’s Advanced Research: Citizen Broadband Radio Service (CBRS) 5-year Forecast Report offers an overview of the CBRS RAN potential with a 5-year forecast (2019 to 2023) for indoor and outdoor LTE and 5G NR CBRS deployments along with a discussion on the participating suppliers.

For more information about the report, please contact dgsales@delloro.com.