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We recently completed our 1Q 2021 Network Security and Data Center Appliance report that spans the Network Security and Application Security & Delivery Markets.  A year since the arrival of the Covid-19 pandemic and the ensuing weakness in both markets, the worst of the recent market weakness appears behind.  Our data suggests enterprises are fueling growth in both markets due to five reasons:

  • Improved confidence in the macro-economic outlook: A year since the arrival of the Covid-19 pandemic, the worst appears behind us, and the light of the end of the dark tunnel is growing brighter. Vaccination rates are increasing–albeit for some countries and regions not fast enough–and the lifting of lockdowns is leading to increased economic activity. This, in turn, is being accelerated by economic stimuli by central governments.
  • Increased spending on technologies to support hybrid work: Although governments are scaling back shelter-at-home mandates, we see a growing number of enterprises embracing hybrid work as a long-term strategy. Hybrid work–time split between the corporate office and the home–is expected to be part of the new post-pandemic normal.
  • Increased spending on technologies that enabled the Internet-based application infrastructure: The pandemic forced business to be conducted online instead of in person. While some enterprises had completed the multi-year journey toward full digitalization by the time the pandemic arrived, many had not. Even with pandemic subsiding, we anticipate continued investment in digitalization efforts by the many enterprises still mid-journey.
  • Need for greater capacity: As the size of Ethernet pipes–now 400GbE readily available –and global data in transit continues to grow, it drives upgrades of network security and application infrastructure.
  • Seeking state-of-the-art security to thwart latest threats: Security breaches and attacks continue unabated, as evident in the recent spate of high-profile ransomware attacks at Colonial Pipeline, the largest pipeline system for refined oil products in the U.S., and JBS Foods, the world’s largest meat producer.

The Network Security market, which includes the Firewall, Secure Web Gateway (SWG), and Email Security technology segments, continued its rebound by growing 8% year-over-year (Y/Y) in 1Q 2021. Meanwhile, the Application Security & Delivery market, which includes Web Application Firewall (WAF), and Application Delivery Controller (ADC) technology segments, rose 17% Y/Y.

 

 

Additional key takeaways from the 1Q 2021 report period include:

  • Revenue growth in both the Network Security and Application Security & Delivery markets could have been more robust if not for the ongoing global semiconductor crunch. Our analysis showed a low, single-digit impact in the physical appliance portion of these markets in 1Q 2021.
  • Firewalls had a good quarter by historical standards with double-digit Y/Y growth. Growth was broad-based, with both virtual and all physical appliance sub-segments (Low End, Midrange, and High End) gaining ground.
  • SWGs were up double-digit Y/Y as enterprises prioritized moving away from legacy VPNs and embracing cloud-based security solutions that promise better flexibility, control, and threat visibility.
  • Email security rose by single-digit Y/Y based on the continued spread of malware primarily via email.
  • WAF revenue grew by double-digit Y/Y driven by the continued priority placed on securing Internet-facing applications.
  • ADCs rose by high single-digits Y/Y after spending most of 2020 in low, single-digit growth.
  • Overall, we adjusted our forecast for 2021 and now project that the sum of the Network Security and Application Delivery & Security markets will hit double-digit Y/Y growth instead of single-digit Y/Y growth.

To learn more about the Dell’Oro Group Network Security and Data Center Appliances market report, please click here or email us at dgsales@delloro.com for report subscription information.

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Today, Huawei presented an update on its CloudCampus business which is thriving. A message that resonated with me was how people embracing digital services and applications triggers the need for equipment with more intelligence and bandwidth. For example, the widespread adoption of mobile application-based financial transactions instead of credit card-based transactions requires big infrastructure changes with financial institutions. People in China are spearheading new technology adoption and in particular, with mobile applications. New technology adoption is the Chinese culture. This was particularly evident to me in a coffee shop in Shenzhen about a year ago. It was late afternoon in the business district and the shop was bustling with people seeking a caffeine lift. There must have been over 50 people—not one of them paid with cash or a credit card—all paid with their mobile phone. I have not seen that level of adoption in other regions of the world—yet.

Within enterprise networks, Huawei is seeing strong demand for upgrades to Wi-Fi 6 as enterprises move to large-scale deployment. Demand is from several vertical industries: manufacturing seeks automated optical inspection to increase production yields; agriculture seeks automation for stocktaking, feeding, and cleaning robots; universities and general commerce businesses are adding sensors creating smart campuses, smart buildings. Interruption-free and consistent service across heterogeneous Wi-Fi networks is also driving network upgrades.

In 2020, the adoption of Wi-Fi 6 in China climbed to just over 40% of overall Wireless LAN market sales, compared to just over 30% for all regions excluding China. We have been meeting (virtually) with many companies in the Wireless LAN market in the past few weeks and have learned that since January, similar to Huawei, others are seeing gigantic demand for Wi-Fi 6 and that demand for older technologies are “falling off a cliff”.

I question whether massive government spending in many countries could be bringing a multi-year technology transformation such as what “The New Deal” brought in public works (bridges, highways, sewage systems, buildings, etc.) after the Great Depression? If yes, Wi-Fi will certainly be a winning technology.

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Recently, I was invited to participate in MEF’s Infinity Edge SeriesEpisode 3: SASE—Getting an Edge on SD-WAN, which focused on Secure Access Service Edge (SASE). I saw it as an excellent opportunity to help bring additional clarity to a topic that is all too often leaving people scratching their heads rather than turning on the proverbial light bulbs in their heads.

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We’ve just wrapped up the 4Q20 reporting period for Dell’Oro Group’s Enterprise Network Equipment programs, which include Campus Switches, Enterprise Data Center Switches, SD-WAN & Enterprise Routers, Network Security, and Wireless LAN. Enterprises include businesses of all sizes as well as government, education, and research entities. The equipment tracked in these programs can be used for wired or wireless data communication in private and secure networks.

 

2020 Market Performance

Our reports suggest that the overall Enterprise Network Equipment market declined 2% year over year (Y/Y) for full-year 2020 to $48.5 B as a result of the COVID-19 pandemic. This is a significant departure from the 6% CAGR achieved from 2014 to 2019.

The decline was driven mostly by campus and data center switches. In the meantime, enterprise spending was up on both routers and security and it was flat on Wireless LAN. What’s interesting is that growth in routers and security was actually driven by software and subscription-based products (SD-WAN and virtual and SaaS security). Even within Wireless LAN, we saw growth in controllers and licenses. In the meantime, spending declined on hardware products (access routers, physical firewall, Wireless LAN access points, and Ethernet switches).

The softness in the total Enterprise Network Equipment market was more pronounced in the first half of the year. However, starting in 3Q20, spending on network equipment began to recover, as enterprises showed confidence investing for the future. Government stimulus around the world was also a major factor. Additionally, what caught our attention is the spread across various technologies of this increase in spending. We calculated that enterprises increased their spending on network equipment by about $400 M in 2H20 (compared to 2H19), about 70% of which was allocated to Wireless LAN.

 

2020 Vendor Landscape

 

From a vendor perspective, Huawei and Cisco composed about 50% of the Enterprise Network Equipment market in 2020; they were the only two vendors with more than 10% revenue share in the Enterprise Network Equipment market.

Cisco remained the market leader in all segments. However, the company saw revenue-share loss in 2020 due to high exposure to hardware-based products and low exposure to China, which outgrew the market during the pandemic.

In the meantime, Fortinet climbed to fifth place, displacing H3C. Fortinet has high exposure to the security market, while H3C has high exposure to the switching market. Since security performed better than switching in 2020, it helped Fortinet gain share and improve its ranking in 2020.

Top 9 Vendors 2019 2020
CISCO 44% 41%
HUAWEI 9% 10%
HPE ARUBA 5% 5%
PALO ALTO NETWORKS 4% 4%
FORTINET 3% 4%
H3C 3% 4%
JUNIPER 2% 2%
CHECK POINT 2% 2%
SYMANTEC / BLUE COAT 2% 2%

 

2021 Market Outlook

Dell’Oro analysts remain optimistic about the 2021 outlook and forecast 5% growth for the total Enterprise Network Equipment Market. This optimism is prompted by improving macro-economic conditions and business confidence as well as the ongoing government stimulus. Additionally, our interviews with end-users, system integrators, and value-added resellers (VARs) revealed that if a portion of the workforce returns to work by the end of 2021, spending on network infrastructure in preparation for such a development should start a few months in advance, perhaps as early as 2Q21 or 3Q21.

Dell’Oro Group Enterprise Network Equipment research programs consist of the following: Campus switches, Enterprise Data Center Switches, SD-WAN & Enterprise Routers, Network Security and Wireless LAN.

Related blogs for 5-year Forecast Jan 2021: