Stefan Pongratz

Vice President

The Open RAN movement encompasses various technologies and architectures aligned with the O-RAN Alliance mission to “re-shape the RAN industry and ecosystem towards more intelligent, open, virtualized, and interoperable networks”.

This movement has come a long way in just a few years, but the results have been mixed. On the one hand, Open RAN already accounts for a mid-single-digit share of the broader RAN market. The pipeline is improving, and leading operators and suppliers are embracing the movement. With three out of the top 5 RAN vendors already supporting the movement, it is no longer a question of if the O-RAN fronthaul interface will be adopted. The fundamental question now is more about the timing and the adoption curve for the various RAN segments.

Following the steep ascent between 2019 and 2022, total Open RAN revenues declined in 2023. While the moderation was anticipated, the rate of deceleration was steeper than expected. This taken together with the increased acceptance that Open RAN is not some magic solution that will significantly alter barriers to entry or overall market concentration, is prompting more questions about the value that Open RAN can ultimately deliver.

Our long-term position remains favorable and mostly unchanged. Even with ongoing challenges and market setbacks, we still anticipate that most operators will gradually incorporate more openness, virtualization, intelligence, and automation into their RAN roadmaps. The pace will differ slightly between the radios and the baseband. However, the business case for multi-vendor RAN is less compelling.

In this report, it is our objective to dig deeper about the Open RAN opportunity and assess if this time is any different—is there enough momentum and progress with Open RAN to ensure this technology will play a significant role in the future 5G and 6G rollouts?

The report addresses such questions as:

  • What is Virtualized and Open RAN?
  • What is the Open RAN vision?
  • What are the benefits of using Virtualized and Open RAN?
  • What is the market opportunity and forecast for Virtualized and Open RAN?
  • What regions will likely be the early adopters?
  • What are the key risks with Open RAN and Virtualized RAN?
  • What will be the impact on the vendor dynamics?

The report includes a 5-year forecast for the following areas:

  • Open RAN – Single-vendor and Multi-vendor, Proprietary RAN
  • Open RAN – Regions (North America, Europe, Middle East & Africa, Asia Pacific, CALA)
  • Open RAN – RAN Function (Baseband and Radio)
  • Open RAN – RF Output Power (Macro, Micro, Pico)
  • Virtualized RAN – Baseband Function (vCU, vDU)
  • Virtualized RAN – RF Output Power (Macro, Micro, Pico)
  • Virtualized RAN – Regions (North America, Europe, Middle East & Africa, Asia Pacific, CALA)
  • Virtualized RAN – Servers