It was an intense week in Barcelona. After 50+ meetings during and before the event, below are some initial key takeaways.
- RAN outlook remains tepid
- Open RAN marketing is morphing
- Vendor concentration will likely increase
- Near-term AI RAN driven by cost efficiencies and performance improvements
Somber RAN Outlook
The RAN forecast remains unchanged, but downside risks persist. One of our primary objectives was to assess whether the 0% CAGR RAN forecast issued in January 2025 still holds. Our preliminary analysis indicates that our long-standing message remains valid—regional imbalances will continue to impact the RAN market in the near term, while the underlying fundamentals shaping the long-term trajectory will continue to exert pressure on the market.
Since RAN spending is constrained by capex, and capex is tied to operators’ revenue growth, the entire wireless industry is urgently seeking new revenue streams to break the cycle of increasing data consumption without corresponding increases in revenue. While we encountered numerous discussions and demos centered on charging premiums for guaranteed or enhanced performance, service providers recognize the difference between monetizing “fun” content and business-critical applications. For example, Uber may be willing to pay extra at airports to ensure timely pings for its users. However, expectations remain low for consumers to pay extra for faster video uploads from congested areas or an improved gaming experience. While AI may drive the development of new applications and content, it is unlikely to fundamentally change consumers’ willingness to pay for “fun” content.
With limited justification for revising carrier topline growth expectations, the focus remains on mobile data traffic growth and performance differentiation. Video accounts for approximately three-fourths of total mobile traffic but still represents a small fraction of the total time users spend streaming on cellular networks. As mobile data traffic growth slows, the industry is increasingly looking for a new device that could shift user behavior and, ultimately, increase video consumption. While a future dominated by smart glasses—where data is continuously recorded and uploaded—would present significant network challenges, we have to spread out the probabilities of any new device for the masses gaining traction.
The general sentiment from the event is clear: the slowdown in data traffic growth, combined with ongoing struggles to monetize consumer connectivity, remains a significant challenge. In this post-peak 5G rollout environment, even flat RAN projections are seen as an optimistic.
Open RAN Losing Marketing Steam
Open RAN is happening (>67% of Ericsson’s 2025 deliveries will be Open RAN prepared), but its marketing power is fading. Incumbent RAN suppliers prefer the Cloud RAN term, while the smaller suppliers are starting to look past Open RAN. Whether this is because the commonly used HHI (Herfindahl Hirshman Index) market concentration gauge was similar in 2024 as in 2018 when the O-RAN Alliance was formed, the original Open RAN multi-vendor vision is morphing, the entire RAN equipment market is down around $9 B, RAN outlook is flat, or the smaller suppliers are tired of waiting for larger Tier1 multi-vendor projects, the outcome is the same – the meaning of Open RAN is changing and marketing departments are aware (multiple suppliers are now looking to shift the message/focus).
In our 5-year forecasts, we track and show Open RAN, vRAN, Cloud-RAN, and multi-vendor RAN. However, our 10-year outlook consolidates the tracking/terms and only shows Cloud RAN.
Vendor Concentration Expected to Increase
Open RAN and Cloud RAN are unlikely to alter the long-term RAN concentration trajectory. After improving between 2020 and 2022—partly due to Open RAN adoption and market share shifts among the top five suppliers—the RAN HHI index rebounded in 2024. While we do not forecast HHI, historical trends suggest that market concentration is on the rise.
Although history is not always the best predictor of future outcomes, several factors indicate that a highly concentrated RAN market by 2030 is a strong possibility. These include recent RAN market developments, the scale required to sustain a competitive RAN portfolio, the ratio of greenfield to brownfield deployments (including FWA, enterprise 5G, and MBB), the challenges faced by smaller suppliers, and ongoing discussions about potential M&A activity.
AI RAN — Performance and Efficiency Gains in the Driver Seat
The use of intelligence in the RAN is not new—both 4G and 5G deployments rely heavily on automation and intelligence to replace manual tasks, manage increasing complexity, enhance performance, and control costs. What is new, however, is the rapid proliferation of AI in both consumer and enterprise domains, along with a shifting mindset toward leveraging AI in cellular networks. More importantly, the scope of AI’s role is expanding, with operators now looking beyond efficiency gains and performance improvements, cautiously exploring whether AI could also unlock new revenue streams.
Given the growing interest in AI RAN, it is no surprise that definitions and interpretations of AI vary across the industry. As the ecosystem gains a deeper understanding of AI’s value in RAN, definitions and expectations will likely continue to evolve.
Currently, the industry’s broader perspective aligns with the AI RAN vision outlined by the AI-RAN Alliance. At a high level, AI is expected to add value in three key areas: asset utilization, application growth, and RAN efficiency improvements. From an operator’s standpoint, AI offers the potential to either boost revenue or reduce capex and opex.
One of the observations in Barcelona was that near-term AI activity is primarily focused on cost savings and efficiency rather than topline growth. For example, China Mobile reported a 30% reduction in MTTR using AI-based O&M, Verizon shared field data indicating a 15% cost savings with Samsung’s AI-powered energy savings manager (AI-ESM), and an Ericsson AI-RAN demo at MWC demonstrated a 20% increase in throughput using AI to optimize performance in non-ideal radio conditions. Similarly, T-Mobile is evaluating how its collaboration with Nokia on AI-RAN can enhance network performance and efficiency.
With revenue growth stagnating, operators are exploring new revenue streams, showing interest in NVIDIA’s latest edge computing initiatives. However, they are also keenly aware of power, energy, and cost constraints at the cell site. The macro-RAN market, valued at approximately $30 billion, supports 1 to 2 million base stations annually, leaving little flexibility in DU pricing. For vRAN to compete with purpose-built RAN, server and acceleration costs must decrease rather than increase. While a GPU-driven RAN-only business model currently has limited viability, the potential for multi-purpose RAN supporting both RAN and non-RAN workloads presents a larger TAM.
That said, our overall impression is that the AI service provider (AI SP) vision—where carriers sell unused AI capacity at scale—remains somewhat farfetched for now. However, as costs and energy consumption decrease, the concept could have more potential in the future.
In short, it was another eventful show in Barcelona with a reasonable balance between hype and reality, perhaps because the RAN market is down nearly $9 B and the outlook remains tepid. Still, the event was also a reminder that there is a lot of innovation and activity underneath the flat topline trajectory. We did not cover all the MWC topics in this blog, but we will likely share more updates in the future.
