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2024 is shaping to be a year of correction across most enterprise network markets, as indicated by a notable decline in spending among key segments. This correction follows extraordinary growth from 2021 to 2023, driven by the surge in demand caused by the pandemic. Now, as enterprises work through the backlog of pandemic-driven investments and face excess inventory, coupled with cautious spending due to ongoing economic uncertainty, the five key enterprise network markets – Network Security, Branch Routing, Campus Switching, WLAN, and Enterprise Data Center Switching – are poised for varying degrees of growth deceleration and all but one an outright contraction.

Common Trends Across Enterprise Networking Markets

Across all five segments, a significant driver of the 2024 correction is a period of “enterprise digestion,” where organizations deploy the substantial purchases made during the pandemic and subsequent supply chain recovery periods. This digestion phase is compounded by excess inventory in the channel, leading to a slowdown in new equipment deliveries.

Moreover, macroeconomic factors such as inflation and tightening IT budgets are dampening network infrastructure investments. The broader technology market faces some pullbacks as companies reevaluate spending in light of potential economic uncertainties. For many vendors, the tailwinds provided by large backlogs of orders during the pandemic have dissipated, and there is now a recalibration as the market waits for demand to return to a more normalized, pre-pandemic level​​​​.

 

Network Security: Adjusting After High Growth

The Network Security market, with firewalls as its largest segment, has faced significant headwinds in 2024 as enterprises work through existing hardware investments. The slowdown reflects a broader trend in the industry, where organizations, having invested heavily in physical firewall solutions during the pandemic, are now focused on optimizing those assets rather than purchasing new hardware. At the same time, growth in non-hardware solutions like Security Service Edge (SSE) and virtual firewalls has helped cushion the decline, but even SSE is seeing a deceleration. After years of explosive growth, SSE investments are beginning to normalize as enterprises slow their spending to integrate existing deployments fully. This shift signals a cooling from the rapid pace of adoption seen in prior years, though the demand for flexible, cloud-based security solutions remains vital for the long term​​.

 

Branch Routing (SD-WAN and Access Routers): Temporary Slowdown Amid Strategic Shifts

The Branch Routing market, which encompasses SD-WAN and traditional access routers, is experiencing a slowdown in 2024 as enterprises take a strategic pause following the rapid expansion of these technologies during the pandemic. SD-WAN saw significant growth as organizations took the opportunity to invest in branch transformation to provide a better network experience at lower TCO at the branch. Still, this surge has now led to inventory overhangs. Additionally, the ongoing integration of SD-WAN functionality into broader Secure Access Service Edge (SASE) frameworks has shifted purchasing behavior. Enterprises are focusing on consolidating and optimizing their existing deployments rather than making new investments, contributing to the temporary softness in the market​​.

 

Campus LAN (WLAN and Campus Switching): Post-Pandemic Normalization

The Campus Switching and WLAN markets are enduring a similar correction as the post-pandemic glut of equipment deliveries is digested. After enjoying strong growth from 2021 to 2023, WLAN sales have contracted in 2024 as enterprises and distributors have worked through high stock levels accumulated during the supply chain recovery.

For Campus Switching, the slowdown has also been dramatic, especially in North America, where revenues have been dropping sharply following a peak in 2023. Excessive backlogs cleared in 2023 have led to a steep decline in new orders. Still, the rise of Power over Ethernet (PoE) technology and higher-speed ports, such as 2.5 Gbps and 5 Gbps, could offer growth opportunities as organizations prepare their networks  for Wi-Fi 7, whose adoption began to accelerate in 2Q24.

 

Enterprise Data Center Switching: The Weakest Segment

The Enterprise Data Center Switching market has been hit the hardest in 2024 thus far. Despite some growth in the broader data center market due to AI-related investments, the enterprise segment has struggled as traditional front-end deployments face intense inventory challenges. The contraction is driven by prolonged backlog normalization and fewer large-scale deployments in non-cloud enterprise environments. The long upgrade cycles for enterprise data centers and a strategic pivot towards cloud and AI back-end networks have made this sector particularly vulnerable.

 

Outlook for 2025: A Return to Growth

Despite the contraction in 2024, the outlook for 2025 is brighter. The fundamental demand for digital transformation, cloud migration, and hybrid work solutions remains intact. As enterprises complete the digestion of their current investments and inventories normalize, spending is expected to rebound. The rise in adoption of AI-driven workloads, 5G, Wi-Fi 7, and advanced security frameworks like SASE will drive growth across the network infrastructure landscape. Furthermore, as inflation and interest rates decrease, enterprises will benefit from improved capital availability, providing further tailwinds for market growth.

However, the Enterprise Data Center Switch market is an exception, as it is not expected to return to growth in 2025. This segment is expected to face challenges. As enterprises continue to embrace the cloud or AI, they will increasingly be on public clouds, reducing the need to expand or refresh their on-premises data center footprint. As a result, further contraction is anticipated for enterprise data center switching, even as other markets recover and expand.

In conclusion, while 2024 is a year of necessary correction following unprecedented growth, the long-term prospects for enterprise network markets remain buoyant. Much of the industry is poised for recovery and growth in 2025, fueled by security, connectivity, and digital infrastructure innovations.

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Two startups with shared advisory board members are hitting the market with solutions designed to facilitate cable’s convergence with wireless and 5G. The announcements are well-timed, given the funk cable operators find themselves in as net broadband subscriber losses mount, but also as those same operators continue to take a sizable share of new mobile subscribers. Additionally, the cable industry, which has for years benefited from decades of shared development cycles and deployments of the latest DOCSIS technologies, finds itself with multiple paths forward (DOCSIS 3.1+, DOCSIS 4.0, fiber, FWA, etc.) and trepidation that the next technology decision will leave it further behind its competitors.

Air5 and Air Wireless each aim to solve different problems cable operators face today. However, both share a core belief: cable operators’ future success depends on their ability to get to market quickly and build networks that transparently handle both fixed broadband and wireless traffic and services across their networks. In a recent blog, I detailed how US telcos are betting on service convergence to continue to chip away at cable’s massive broadband subscriber base. It stands to reason that cable operators will fight back using the same approach.

 

Extending DOCSIS Wirelessly

First, Air Wireless is pitching a solution that allows cable operators to extend their DOCSIS networks and services wirelessly using E-band spectrum, ranging from 60 GHz to 90GHz, and a point-to-multipoint architecture that looks and feels very similar to how optical nodes are distributed throughout an HFC network. The technology isn’t new. In fact, Air Wireless acquired the assets from a Slovenian startup known as Globtel, which had developed the Gigaray platform to transport voice, video, and DOCSIS data traffic wirelessly from a base station to transceivers located at businesses, MDUs, and residences. The transceivers connect to existing DOCSIS 3.1 modems and set-top boxes, allowing for a quick and easy method for aggregating and backhauling DOCSIS traffic.

The primary benefit of the Air Wireless solution to operators is time-to-market. Operators can extend their DOCSIS networks without having to run fiber to a new node location. Or, an operator can deploy the solution as a way to get services to an MDU or new neighborhood quickly and in advance of a more traditional buildout of an HFC network. In rural areas or regions where the costs associated with deploying fixed infrastructure just don’t make sense relative to subscriber ARPU, the Air Wireless solution gives operators a more cost-effective option for DOCSIS network extensions. Because of this flexibility, the company is reported in customer trials around the globe.

In the US, the key opportunity lies in the upcoming BEAD-, RDOF-, and Capital Projects Fund-related rollouts, which are time-sensitive and aimed at addressing lower-density rural and underserved areas. In India, cable operators such as Hathway, Den, and others are seeking ways to expand their networks and remain competitive with Reliance Jio and Bharti, both of which have begun significant fiber expansions. The Indian government continues to subsidize rural broadband rollouts to remote villages, where the Air Wireless solution could play a role in distributing broadband services. In Europe, where permitting delays and labor costs make network expansions costly, the Air Wireless solution could be used to extend DOCSIS networks more quickly.

One of the more interesting applications for the Air Wireless solution that also has global appeal is using the platform as a way to overbuild and upgrade existing HFC plants to deliver end-to-end DOCSIS 3.1 capabilities and take advantage of the more flexible modulation formats offered by OFDM. Many operators are still using DOCSIS 2.0 and DOCSIS 3.0, in some cases without channel bonding. Instead of potentially swapping out amplifiers or doing faceplate upgrades for new diplex filters, operators could use the Air Wireless platform with Remote PHY or Remote MACPHY modules to move to DOCSIS 3.1 more cost-effectively. In Latin America, for example, where cable operators are moving to fiber instead of upgrading from DOCSIS 2.0 or 3.0 to DOCSIS 3.1, the Air Wireless platform could give them a more cost-effective way to add throughput without the significant labor costs associated with trenching fiber.

 

Converging DOCSIS and 5G

While Air Wireless is focused on extending DOCSIS networks wirelessly, Air5 is focused on converging DOCSIS and wireless networks, taking advantage of architectural similarities between mobile backhaul networks and DAA-based DOCSIS networks. The CU (Centralized Unit) and Distributed Unit (DU) of 5G networks are roughly equivalent to the Remote PHY, Remote MACPHY, and select functions of the vCMTS in DAA networks.

Ultimately, the vision is that optical nodes become small cell sites with a shared infrastructure allowing cable operators to continue delivering DOCSIS data services as they do while also either continuing to offload their MVNO mobile traffic onto their Wi-Fi networks or directly onto the converged network via radio units that can handle the frequency conversion required to hand off mobile traffic. The shared infrastructure will require an upgrade to existing outside plant equipment so that DOCSIS data can still be delivered in spectrum up to 1.2 GHz, while 5G traffic can be transported anywhere between 3 GHz-5 GHz. New amplifiers, which Air5 is working on with partners, will have to be deployed. That might be a hard pill to swallow for operators who are just about to upgrade much of their installed amplifier base to 1.8 GHz.

Fixed-mobile convergence has been in various stages of discussion and deployment for years if not decades. So, why is this time different? Let’s consider a few different reasons:

  1. Mobile subscriber growth and service bundling are critical for cable operators. In the US, the largest cable operators have seen significant growth in their mobile subscriber numbers, providing a silver lining to the dark cloud of broadband subscriber losses. Cable operators have grown their mobile subscriber base via MVNO relationships with Verizon and T-Mobile, but they are increasingly looking to deploy their own CBRS spectrum to become more self-reliant. Service bundling—especially if it allows subscribers to do truly seamless hand-offs between 5G and Wi-Fi networks while maintaining a single subscriber identity—is a critical goal of all operators.
  2. Cable operators have powered outside plants. One of the biggest arguments against HFC networks, when compared with PON-based fiber networks, is actually a significant advantage when it comes to convergence: Power. HFC networks rely on signals that need to be amplified approximately every 2500 feet. To support this, 90-volt AC power inserters have been deployed at consistent intervals to provide for the powering of nodes, amplifiers, and Wi-Fi access points. In fact, US cable operators have deployed over 600 K Wi-Fi access points partially due to the availability of power at strategic locations. Cable operators not only have enough power to deploy small cells but also the fiber necessary to backhaul these small cell sites.
  3. Control and user plane separation makes convergence easier. Because 5G core networks provide control and user plane separation, it becomes easier to converge 5G and Wi-Fi networks across the RAN and core. Additionally, cable operators’ transition to DAA architectures helps to virtualize DOCSIS networks. This gives operators much greater flexibility to offer network slicing, allowing Wi-Fi traffic can ultimately be managed by a converged 5G and DOCSIS core. This process begins with an evolution of the vCMTS to a vBNG and then an AGF (Access Gateway Function), which essentially serves as the bridge between the wireline network and the mobile core.

 

Expanding the Component Vendor Ecosystem

One of the benefits of convergence is the potential increase in the number of component vendors developing new chips to support the larger, combined TAM (Total Addressable Market.) There is probably no segment in the communications sector that could use a supplier expansion other than DOCSIS, which has historically been dominated by Broadcom. In fact, in a recent blog, we argued that Broadcom’s decision to accelerate the availability of a 3 GHz-capable unified chip that supports DOCSIS 5.0 could be an effort to “pre-empt efforts by upstarts such as Air5, which is developing products that fuse 5G and DOCSIS networks and, simultaneously, opening up the shrinking DOCSIS component ecosystem to suppliers in the RAN and mobility sectors.”

We have already seen significant consolidation of DOCSIS infrastructure and CPE suppliers in the last year and we fully expect that this will continue, as the DOCSIS equipment TAM, by itself, is not enough to sustain the current vendor ecosystem. Component supplier consolidation is expected soon, as well, certainly with Qualcomm’s rumored exploration of an acquisition of Intel.

Lurking around are the likes of Nvidia and AMD, who are looking to merge signal processing and GPUs. Though these components would be designed for use in mobility networks, there is no reason they couldn’t be adapted to work in converged networks, as well.